Every year there ends up being a handful of teams “you don’t want to see” in the opening rounds of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.
You know the squads: the ones that finish strong after a slow start; the talented groups that take a while to gel. From the looks of it, there’s one team that fits both those bills a month from Selection Sunday.
Michigan State sits at 8-6 in Big Ten play after a 1-4 start that had many people, myself included, believing the Spartans 25-year tournament streak was over. At 16-9, MSU has won 7 of its last 10 games after a 9-6 start.
MSU on Feb. 10 got a much-needed home win over a then top-10 ranked Illinois team. The Spartans followed that up with a win at Penn State that saw senior forward Malik Hall record a career-high 29 points.
The computers love MSU. The Spartans are currently ranked 15th in KenPom and are in the top 25 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. MSU is 21st in the most recent NET rankings despite a 3-7 record away from East Lansing and a 4-7 mark in Quad 1 games. MSU does have the home win over Illinois, along with a neutral court win over Baylor and a home win over Missouri Valley Conference leader Indiana State. The Spartans have also been competitive in games with Duke and Arizona.
The up-and-down play isn’t new for MSU. The Spartans haven’t been good since the pandemic. Remember: MSU won three straight Big Ten titles from 2018 to 2020. Everything changed, including transfer rules and the introduction of NIL. The Spartans rosters since the start of the 2020-21 season have left a lot to be desired. The team in 2021 lost in the play-in round, and lost in the first weekend in 2022. The team hasn’t had an offensively competent center since Xavier Tillman left for the NBA. Play on the wings has been an issue, as has depth.
Spartan supporters have gone from expecting conference titles and deep tournament runs to hoping to simply make the Field of 68. Last year’s run to the Sweet Sixteen proved a mirage and led to a questionably high preseason ranking. MSU at the start of the season couldn’t hit a 3 after leading the Big Ten in the category in 2022-23. There seemed to be an over-reliance on senior guard Tyson Walker, who leads the team in points and steals.
Issues remain but it looks like MSU is finding its way. Along with Hall, junior guard Jaden Akins is making strides. Akins over the Spartans last five games is averaging 15.2 points per game — nearly 4 points a game better than his season average. Akins over that span has gone 18/36 from 3.
February has been a good month for the Spartans, who are 3-1 this month. Of MSU’s final six games, four come against teams behind the Spartans in the Big Ten standings, including three against the bottom three teams in the league. MSU in that stretch also travels to Purdue and hosts Northwestern.
MSU could still use more contributions from their bigs, but senior Mady Sissoko and sophomore Carson Cooper don’t seem up to the task. Freshman Xavier Booker, a 6-foot-11, 200-pounder, can’t stay out of Izzo’s doghouse, it seems. Booker is the highest-rated recruit to commit to Izzo, but has had trouble adjusting to the college game. Still, the play of other bigs would seem to warrant Booker playing more than the 8.4 minutes per game he does.
Despite its struggles, it looks like the Spartans tournament run will continue. It remains to be seen if it’ll be a long stay. MSU has advanced past the first weekend just twice since 2015.
But there’s a reason Izzo is known as Mr. March.
Bubble watch
Atlantic 10
Lock
Dayton
Work left to do
Loyola Chicago, Richmond
ACC
Locks
North Carolina, Duke, Virginia
Work left to do
Wake Forest, Clemson
American Athletic Conference
Lock
Florida Atlantic
Work left to do
South Florida, SMU, Memphis
Big 12
Locks
Houston, Kansas, Iowa State, Baylor, Texas Tech, BYU, Oklahoma
Work left to do
TCU, Texas, Kansas State, Cincinnati
Big East
Locks
UCONN, Marquette, Creighton
Work left to do
Seton Hall, Butler, Providence
Big Ten
Locks
Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin
Work left to do
Northwestern, Michigan State, Nebraska
Mountain West
Locks
Utah State, New Mexico, San Diego State
Work left to do
Boise State, Colorado State
Pac-12
Locks
Arizona, Washington State
Work left to do
Oregon, Colorado
SEC
Locks
Tennessee, Auburn, Alabama, South Carolina, Kentucky
Work left to do
Florida, Mississippi State, Ole Miss