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HomeBasketballNCAA BasketballBubble Watch: Michigan State playing itself out of the NCAA Tournament field

Bubble Watch: Michigan State playing itself out of the NCAA Tournament field

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In two weeks, the field for the 2024 Men’s NCAA Basketball Tournament will be set.

Selection Sunday is always a great day. As a Michigan State alum, I’ve never had to sweat out waiting to see if my team made the bracket.

That’s likely to change this year.

MSU, which has played in 25 straight NCAA Tournaments, has had a weird season. The Spartans, preseason No. 4, started the campaign 1-4. MSU battled back to win 13 of 17 over a month in January and February. Now, after a 6-point March 2 loss at Purdue, the Spartans have lost three straight and sit at 17-12, 9-9 Big Ten.

That looks like a trip to Dayton waiting to happen, right? It feels like MSU should be one of the very last teams in IF it gets in.

Like I said, the Spartans have had a weird run. Two of MSU’s last three defeats were home losses. The Spartans were a double-digit underdog at Purdue, which has now won 10 of 11 vs. MSU. Yet somehow the Spartans’ place in the NET rankings improved. MSU in the KenPom rankings remains in the top 25 too.

If it were solely up to the computers the Spartans would be a lock for a 26th straight trip to the Big Dance. But they actually play the games, and MSU doesn’t look like a tournament team. Sure the Spartans have played Duke, Arizona and Purdue close, but they didn’t win any of those games.

MSU isn’t the only team that will be sweating on Selection Sunday. There are several teams still with a lot of work to do over the next couple of weeks.

Following is another look at the projected multi-bid leagues. I expect there to be 22 one-bid conferences, and 10 multi-bid leagues.

Atlantic 10
Lock
Dayton

Should be in
Richmond

Work left to do
Loyola-Chicago

ACC
Locks
North Carolina, Duke

Should be in
Virginia

Work left to do
Clemson, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Pittsburgh

American Athletic Conference
Locks
None

Should be in
South Florida, Florida Atlantic

Work left to do
Memphis, SMU

Big 12
Locks
Houston, Iowa State, Baylor, Kansas, Texas Tech, BYU

Should be in
None

Work left to do
Texas, Oklahoma, TCU

Big Ten
Locks
Purdue, Illinois

Should be in
Wisconsin, Northwestern

Work left to do
Nebraska, Iowa, Michigan State, Ohio State

Missouri Valley
Lock
Indiana State

Should be in
Drake

Work left to do
None

Mountain West
Locks
Utah State, San Diego State

Should be in
Colorado State, New Mexico

Work left to do
Boise State, Nevada

Pac-12
Locks
Arizona, Washington State

Should be in
None

Work left to do
Oregon, Colorado

SEC
Locks
Tennessee, Alabama, South Carolina, Kentucky, Auburn

Should be in
Florida

Work left to do
Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Texas A & M

West Coast Conference
Locks
St. Mary’s, Gonzaga

Should be in
None

Work left to do
San Francisco

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