Fans of Indiana football should be very nervous.
That seems odd to write after the Hoosiers on Saturday beat Michigan to move to 10-0 for the first time in program history. The victory was a “helmet win” for Indiana, as the Hoosiers don’t have a great history against the Wolverines. Indiana with the Nov. 9 win moved to 11-58 against Michigan. The Hoosiers are 2-3 in their last five against the Wolverines, though, with the other win coming in the 2020 COVID-shortened season.
The win at this point in the season is the best for Indiana. That’s not saying a lot, though, as Michigan is 5-5 and in the middle of its worst full season in a decade.
The Hoosiers on Tuesday night moved up to Nov. 5 in the College Football Playoff Rankings. That’s off the strength of their dominant performances week after week. The five-point win over Michigan was Indiana’s first victory by less than two touchdowns. The Hoosiers are second in the country at 43.9 points per game. Indiana on defense allows just 13.8 points per game, good for seventh in the country.
It’s already been a historic year for the Hoosiers and first-year coach Curt Cignetti. Unfortunately for Indiana it all comes down to one game.
Indiana travels to Ohio State on Nov. 23. The Hoosiers will most certainly take a step up in class in the game. Win or lose, it will help IU’s strength of schedule, which right now sits at 100 out of 134 FBS teams.
The Hoosiers can’t afford to get blown out by the Buckeyes. A win is obviously great for Indiana. A close loss would show the playoff committee the Hoosiers can hang with a big dog.
Anything outside of that and Indiana has no shot at the playoff. Even at 11-1, the Hoosiers would get passed over by teams with better resumes. Again, Indiana’s best win is over the worst Michigan team in a decade. Georgia, seven spots behind Indiana in the playoff rankings, has wins over Alabama and Clemson. Ole Miss, six spots behind Indiana in the rankings, routed Georgia and South Carolina. SMU, at No. 14 in the playoff rankings, has wins at Louisville and gave Pittsburgh its first loss of the season after the Panthers started 7-0.
Committee members on Tuesday night said strength of schedule plays a role in where teams are slotted. Indiana has the worst strength of schedule among top-12 teams by a wide margin.
An 11-1 Indiana team will still be considered for a slot in the playoff. The Hoosiers are quite possibly the story of the 2024 college football season. All stories don’t have happy endings, though. It’s not Indiana’s fault Michigan stinks and Washington’s just OK. Or that Nebraska has fallen off a cliff. But what win can Indiana hang its hat on if it doesn’t beat OSU next weekend?
Unfortunately, and maybe even unfairly, the Hoosiers’ season comes down to Nov. 23 in the Horseshoe.
The “If I Voted” College Football Playoff rankings
1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Tennessee
5. BYU
6. Alabama
7. Ole Miss
8. Georgia
9. Indiana
10. Notre Dame
11. Penn State
12. Boise State
First two out: Miami (Florida), SMU
Week 11 Heisman ballot
1. Travis Hunter, Colorado DB/WR
2. Ashton Jeanty, Boise State RB
3. Cam Ward, Miami (Florida) QB
4. Dillon Gabriel, Oregon QB
5. Jalen Milroe, Alabama QB
Best of the Week 12 slate
1. Tennessee at Georgia
2. Missouri at South Carolina
3. Arizona State at Kansas State
4. Tulane at Navy
5. Boise State at San Jose State
6. Clemson at Pittsburgh
7. Kansas at BYU
8. Oregon at Wisconsin
9. Texas at Arkansas
10. LSU at Florida
