It’s Kentucky Downs Preview Days at Ellis Park this weekend. Seven stakes, each offering the winner an automatic entry-fees paid spot to their corresponding race at Kentucky Downs. That lucrative meet runs Aug. 31 and Sept. 2, 3, 7, 9, 10 and 13.
We don’t attack big fields with formful turf runners looking for chalk. We want prices. Here’s a rundown of live longshots in the three stakes on Saturday at Ellis.
Find my Ellis Turf Pick 3 play at the end.
Race 7 the $200,000 Ky Downs Preview Mint Ladies Turf Sprint
At 8-5, I wouldn’t touch #1 Bay Storm with a 10-foot pole. In fact, I wouldn’t play the morning line favorite at 3-1.
There are two which should run well in here, but I am concerned the price might be too short. #2 Love and Money (9-2) and #10 Quaria Comet (4-1). Both have a similar story: lightly raced, in hot barns, and stepped forward in a nice way last out.
#4 Linguistic (20-1). Her last two races were sneakily good, especially considering who she faced. An improving 4-year-old who is likely sitting on the best race of her career.
#8 New Boss (10-1) ran huge in defeat to Oeuvre at Fair Grounds last February. Exiting a solid second-place finish, she possesses a big late run, and her best wins against these.
I think #9 Semble Juste (30-1) should be taken seriously. There are few better than Corey Lanerie at working with a horse cutting back in distance, and that’s what this Irish-bred is doing for the first start of her 5-year-old season. McPeek brought her to Kentucky Downs before, so it makes sense that’s what he’s targeting here. It’s an ambitious spot, which is a positive signal.
Race 8 The Dueling Grounds Derby Preview
There’s a lot of speed signed on in here, and the favorite Wadsworth (8-5) drew poorly in Post 10.
#4 Worthington (15-1) showed talent enough to pop on the Derby trail, which likely waylaid his progress. Now he’s back on turf and could be on the verge of reaching his 3-year-old potential.
Don’t sleep on #5 Lincoln Highway (15-1). Oliver has a good one here who faired well against older last out, a field that included two next-out winners, Taking Candy being one of them.
#6 Act a Fool (15-1). Rivelli put him on turf last time and he dominated. If there was one who could sneak out in front and not stop, it’s him.
#7 Anglophile (12-1) beat a good bunch last out even with encountering some trouble. Lynch and Cannon have been on fire, and the pace sets up for Anglophile to take his late kick to the next level.
#12 Sharar (10-1) is lightly raced, trained by Todd Pletcher, and is a half-sibling to the sensational Lady Eli.
Race 9 $200,000 Ky Downs Preview Mint Millions Mile
Fuerteventura’s figures just aren’t as fast as many in here, so it’s surprising to see him made favorite in the morning line. #4 Gray’s Fable (3-1)’s form has been going south since turning eight, so I won’t back him on top at less than 6-1.
#1 Minnesota Ready (20-1) took advantage of the track bias last out, but still, that was a big effort. Back to turf, rail trip, and tactical options for this Pessin-trainee who has the top Thoro-Graph figure in the field.
Do note that #2 Trafalgar (20-1)’s stablemate is entered in here. With a ton of early speed #10 Santos Dumont (20-1) will be a full-send, and the likely rabbit for Trafalgar to run down. Neither has tried turf before.
#3 Big Dreaming (10-1) is a big ole badass and it’s great to see him back to the races and firing bullets in the morning. Watch out.
#6 Hozier (12-1) just ran a new top in the Wise Dan and has shown his new ratability over the last two races.
#8 Greyes Creek (20-1) will get a ton of pace to run out and can definitely hang with these.
Ellis Turf Pick 3 play
Alright, that’s a lot of longshot opinions, so how do we build a $3 base bet Pick 3 without blowing the bank? I’m willing to spend more on this one because I am taking a confident and aggressive swing against the morning line favorites.
I’ll build three tickets, singling a price in each leg. In other words, at least one of my top longshot plays has to win. This saves $117 over going 4 x 5 x 5 and stays true to my handicapping opinions.
4 with 4,5,6,7,12 with 1,2,3,6,8 = $75
2,8,9,10 with 7 with 1,2,3,6,8 = $60
2,8,9,10 with 4,5,6,12 with 3 = $48
Total $183
