The finale in an all-stakes Pick 6, the $150,000 Groupie Doll came up salty. Non Violence, Falconet, Interstatedaydream, and Hidden Connection will likely attract the lion’s share of the public’s money. Listed as 15-1 in the morning line, there’s no doubt in my mind that bettors will sleep on #6 She Can’t Sing.
Here’s my breakdown of the Groupie Doll, along with my top picks and contenders for each leg of the 20-cent Pick 6 at Ellis Park on Sunday August 13.
Race 10 Dirt 1 Mile the $150,000 Groupie Doll 3YO & up fillies
This will be the third year in a row that Chris Block has shifted She Can’t Sing from the turf to the dirt between August and November. In 2021 it resulted in a career top performance going 7 furlongs in an allowance race at Churchill Downs. In 2022, she won the Grade 3 Chiluki going one mile. On Sunday, we’ll see if this magical move works yet again for Block in the Groupie Doll at Ellis Park.
Block has amazing numbers going from turf to dirt. He was won with 30% of his last 33 attempts, and maybe more telling, having done this 257 times in his career, his horses run a new top on Thoro-Graph 32% of the time. 25% of the time they run back to their previous top effort–which is fast enough to beat this field.
With plenty of fillies interested in the lead, but none who are all-out need-the-lead types, working out the right trip will be essential in the Groupie Doll and smack dab in the middle of ten runners, She Can’t Sing drew well to play the break, tuck in and sit one or two lengths off the leader.
But she will have to beat the game morning line favorite #5 Interstatedaydream (9-5). The graded stakes winner who runs her best on or near the early lead had a tough time out of the gates last out and found herself in the back of the pack. Still, she was able to finish second in the $250,000 Lady Jacqueline on the Ohio Derby day undercard at Thistledown. I see the Cox filly running well on Sunday, and want to use her underneath She Can’t Sing.
Wagers:
Bet #6 She Can’t Sing to win at 10-1 or higher.
Ice cold exacta using #6 on top of #5.
Race 5 Dirt 7 Furlongs Debutante 150k 2YO fillies
Top Pick: #10 Hot Beach and #7 Easy Red (8-1)
Top Contenders: #3 Grace Given (20-1) and #4 Edistrudis (30-1)
Race 6 Dirt 7 Furlongs 2YOJuvenile 150k
Top Pick: #5 Coulditbemajic (6-1)
Top Contenders: #1 Ham Sandwich (8-1) and #3 Omex (15-1)
Race 7 Dirt 7 Furlongs Audubon Oaks 150k 3YO fillies
Top Pick: #1 Ruthless Rua (12-1)
Top Contenders: #2 Padma (8-1) and #9 Magical Lute (15-1)
Race 8 Dirt 1 Mile Ellis Park Derby 250k 3YOs
Top Pick: #1 Tumbarumba (8-1)
Top Contenders: #3 Denington (4-1), #4 Loyal Company (6-1), #5 Blue Light (6-1), and #8 How’d He Do That (5-2)
Race 9 Dirt 1 Mile Cowboy Jones 100k 3YOs & up
Top Pick: #6 Zozos (1-1)
Top Contender: the entire field is live behind Zozos
