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HomeHorse RacingLouie's Look Ahead - Alabama Day at Saratoga

Louie’s Look Ahead – Alabama Day at Saratoga

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Louie’s Look Ahead – Alabama Day at Saratoga

A most happy Alabama Day to those who observe.

We were debating on the Horse Racing Happy Hour on Thursday night – has the Alabama surpassed the KY Oaks in prestige for 3YO fillies? We answered yes, and I came up with the following restricted, route-length dirt races for 3YO fillies:

KY Oaks
CCA Oaks
Black-Eyed Susan

Look, I’d love to own a filly that won ANY of them, but I think the rankings are pretty accurate. We’ll do a 3YO colts/ open company rankings next week ahead of the Travers.

Alright – another week, another Grand Slam bet at Saratoga. Let’s get to it.
If you’re unfamiliar with the Grand Slam wager, it’s a $1 base wager where your job is to pick horses that hit the board (WPS) in the first three legs, and then the winner in the fourth leg. If you hit multiple parts of a leg, you have the chance to cash multiple times. It’s a fun wager that keeps you engaged as long as one of your horses hits the board.

Race 7 G2 Lake Placid. 1 1/16 miles, turf. 3YOF. $200k.

Four Chad Browns, and I love one of them: 7 Surge Capacity is coming out of a stakes win first time against winners, and did it on yielding turf at Saratoga a month ago. I think it’s going to be a touch soft, so she gets the nod from me. No surprise, she’s the ML fave, too, at 3/1. If we like her, the filly who finished right behind her should get a nod, too- 4 Tax Implications keeps Manny Franco in the irons, and should be part of the equation here, too.

A bunch of these fillies will try to get the lead, which could set up an interesting pace scenario out front. 1 Heavenly Sunday, 3 Gloria’s Princess, and 8 Prerequisite are all going to try to earn the lead; if the pace gets away, I like Surge Capacity even more. Of the front runners, I think 3 Gloria’s Princess is the best of the group.

I think the mile and sixteenth will suit 2 Aspray considerably better, and expect her to be part of the equation.

I mentioned 6 horses – and maybe this is the leg where we use a bunch trying to load up our combinations.

Top Selections: 7, 2, 3, 8, 1, 4

Race 8 OC, $80k claim price, $162,500 purse. 1 mile, dirt. F&M 3+up. N$L.

In this one, I’m going to lean on horses I know love the distance, and hit the board a ton, given that it isn’t a stakes race and I don’t know a ton about them.

1 Movie Moxy is running for the *ninth* time already this year, and old school mare. 8 runs this year, hit the board 6 times; she’s run at a mile 8 times in her life, and never missed the board. Obvious include. She scratched out, darn it all.

3 Gerrymander ran in the Alabama last year, and has settled into this type of company more and more this year. Best stat? 5-for-5 lifetime hitting the board at the distance, and the connections make sense. Include.

Similar conditions last time out – and she almost won off the layoff – for the 7 Nostalgic. I think she is the most likely winner here, and a must-include.

Top Selections: 7, 3.

Race 9 G1 Alabama. 1 ¼ miles, dirt. 3YOF. $600k.

The marquee of the day, nationwide: the Alabama. What a cool race. The 3 most recent winners are Nest, Malathaat, and Swiss Skydiver. That list, as the kids would say, doesn’t suck.

Look, 2 Wet Paint is the class here, and she showed it last out in the CCA Oaks – #4 on our list of most prestigious 3YOF races. She should, by every measure, love the added distance. Include.

1 Sacred Wish got caught at the wire by Wet Paint last out, going a full furlong shorter in the CCA Oaks. I do think, however, she can get the distance here. She’s not likely to win – that’s not what she does – but we need a horse to hit the board. Option.

We’ll go shorter here, hoping we get a playback of the CCA.

Top Selections: 2, 1.

Race 10 OC. $62k claim price, $156k purse. 1 mile, turf. 3+up. N$L.

Time to pick the winner, and we’re staying on the turf for this one.

All of the numbers point to 2 Napoleonic War, and I expect him to be right there at the end. We’ll also use the recent winner 5 Whisper Not who has been peppering the board lately.

Top Selections: 2, 5

Grand Slam Ticket:
Race 7 7, 2, 3, 8, 1, 4
Race 8 7, 3
Race 9 2, 1
Race 10 2, 5

GRAND SLAM TICKET: 1,2,3,4,7,8 / 3,7 / 1,2 / 2,5 $1 base = $48.

Good luck today! Happy Alabama!

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