Louie’s Look Ahead: Arlington Million & 4stardave

Three years, three tracks. Ah, the expedition continues for the Arlington Million – from Illinois, to the “turf” course at Churchill, and now its more long-term landing spot in Eastern Virginia. We carry on.

Our look ahead will concentrate on the Cross Country Pick 5 bet – 2 at Saratoga, 3 at Colonial.

Colonial Downs – Arlington Million Day

Race 8 Grade 2 Secretariat Stakes. 1 mile, turf. 3YO. $500k.

We’re down to six here after scratches, but our top selections are unaffected. I think 5 Mo Stash is a must-include, as he is the most likely to inherit the lead. Three straight runs hitting the board in stakes company, and Wadsworth and Webslinger have come back well after their respective races against.

3 Nigarroc is always part of the equation at the end; I like the fact that trainer Graham Motion has a presence at Colonial, and I think Prat will get a stalking trip right off of Mo Stash. Expect them to be in or near the lead the whole way.

At some point, trainer Charlie Appleby will get it going stateside in 2023. Is today the day? I’m not losing a ticket because of him. Include the 1 Silver Knott.

Top selections: 5, 3, 1.

Race 9 G1 Beverly D. 1 3/16 miles, turf. F&M 3+up. $500k. Breeders Cup Win & In

5 Didia has scratched, leaving this one for two contenders to battle it out. 1 Fev Rover is a Mark Casse entrant, and has run five straight good races. Casse’s current numbers at Colonial shouldn’t be overlooked, as well. Include.

A Chad Brown special in this one – 6 Gina Romantica is second off a layoff, and nearly won in first asking last out at Monmouth in the Eatontown. She’s the main contender to Fev Rover given Didia’s scratch.

Top selections: 6, 1.

Race 10 G1 Arlington Million. 1 ¼ miles, turf. 3+up. $1M.

We’ll grab four in here. I’ve got a touch of a price on top – the 6/1 2 Never Explain comes in in good form. Jockey Vincent Cheminaud is now a mainstay at Colonial, and an emerging top turf rider in the US. Could this be his full coming out party?

4 Atone is the 7/2 favorite, and that’s probably about as short a price as anyone should ever get to in this field. We’re drawing a line through the Muniz in NOLA, and hoping that Dinner Party/ Pegasus form is in the chamber. Jockey Kendrick Carmouche travels in for this one, having won his last mount aboard Atone. Include.
8 Catnip is in a vein of seriously good form, and could be the upset pick here. Brian Hernandez flies in for this one trained by Michael Stidham. I think he wins the United Nations last out if the race is 10 furlongs and not 11, and this one is 10. Serious shot. My only concern – this is a lot of high-level races at big distances, and he may be tired.

And the last question – which Chad Brown is best? The answer is 5 Rockemperor, and I think you leave Brown out at your own risk.

Top selections: 2, 4, 8, 5.


Saratoga Handicapping – 4stardave Day

Race 7 Galway. 5 ½ F, turf. 3YOF. $150k.

This is a brutal race that I’m personally staying away from – I think 8 Love Reigns is a worthy ML favorite. 9 Stone Silent is an interesting entrant here, coming out of Indianapolis-level allowance races. Last race was sub-56 seconds, which is a winning time in any company.

Top Selections: 8, 9

Race 8 G2 Saratoga Special. 6 ½ F, dirt. 2YO. $200k.

A cool weekend of 2YO races: Saratoga Special, Graduation at Del Mar, the Debutante and Juvenile at Ellis. All fun races, and this one doesn’t disappoint.

If you watch the replays, there are some very nice runners in here, none more than the second asking for 6 Rhyme Schemes. This is a case where I think you need to make a decision: trust the previous form, and that even a regression will still result in a win; if you want to make money on a longer ticket, you’ll have to beat him.

The best chances in this field are 5 Edified, who looked mature in his first race- stalked, and passed when asked; and 4 Haul, whom I’m including simply because of the Irad/ Pletcher combo.

Top selections: 6, 5, 4.

R9 G1 Fourstardave. 1 mile, turf. 3+up. $500k.

I fully expect another 6 Casa Creed and 4 Annapolis exacta. I’ll give the slight edge to Casa Creed. I absolutely expect 7 Ice Chocolat to get a better trip, and be part of the trifecta at the end. He got a terrible trip in the Kelso last out, and should benefit from a better trip today.
Top Selections: 6, 4, 7.

Cross Country Pick 5:

Saratoga Race 8 6
Colonial Race 8 5, 3, 1
Saratoga Race 9 6, 4
Colonial Race 9 6, 1
Colonial Race 10 2, 4, 5, 8

$.50 Pick 5 base is $24. Good luck today!