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HomeHorse RacingLouie's Look Ahead - Pennsylvania Derby Day 2023

Louie’s Look Ahead – Pennsylvania Derby Day 2023

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Louie’s Look Ahead – Pennsylvania Derby Day 2023

Back at it on the Look Ahead – this time with a damp Pennsylvania Derby card preview. 14 races, 13 of them with $100k+ purses. They mean business in the Philly suburbs today.

Let’s look at some of the more interesting fields today, and where there might be a single. My colleague Kevin has his picks up for the entire card – alongside mine – at www.goldbookbets.com. There are also a half dozen plays for college football there – all for $5. Probably the best value in tip sheets around. Today’s a good day to check it out.

A note about betting Parx: there are many good things about betting Parx today (field sizes, etc), but it should be noted that their takeout rates are amongst the most punitive in North America – WPS bets are a playable 17%, as are the DDs and Exactas at 20%. Everything else is 25% or higher; the Philly Big 5 (Pick 5) is usually a jackpot, but has a forceout and carryover attached today – $265k worth. If you’re a Pick 5 bettor, that certainly makes it worth it.

Let’s get into some of the stakes on the card, which is easy enough – as there are 10(!) on the card today.

Race 7 – Grade 3 Greenwood Cup. 1 ½ miles, dirt. 3+up. $200,000.

Here’s an example of a potential single, or where you can make serious bang on your bet. 6 Next is a worth 8/5 favorite, having won recently in stakes at longer distances on dirt. He won the G2 Brooklyn on Belmont day, and ran it back winning the Birdstone at Saratoga – by over 11 lengths. He’s going great right now, and I would lean toward singling him in a sequence.

If you’re looking to maximize a double or exacta bet, you’ll have to avoid Next in the top spot. Instead, you’ll have to hope like 3 Ridin With Biden or 4 Calibrate ends up winning the race. I think either is going to pay 2x-3x what Next will pay, either in a double or in an exacta. Ridin With Biden is a local specialist, with local jockey Paco Lopez; Calibrate finished right behind RWR last out in a 10F allowance; your hope is the comment line “gradual gain” will turn into a win over a longer distance.

Top selections: 6, 4, 3.

Race 8 – Grade The Turf Monster. 5F, turf. 3+up. $250,000.

Another ‘monster’ favorite, here: 4 Roses for Debra will likely go off as odds-on, regardless of conditions. They’re listing the turf as ‘soft’ for today, and it’ll be her first time going over a surface listed as less than ‘good.’

That said, she’s absolutely the most likely winner. However, if you want to make some money, you’re going to have to try another contender.

We’ve followed 2 Nobody Listens a lot as part of the podcast, and in full disclosure, I know the ownership group. But this horse merits a serious look: he’s won, and just this year, over dirt, turf, and synthetic. If anyone in this field is going to pop and win this thing not named Roses for Debra, he’s it.

Top selections: 4, 2

Race 13 – The Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby. 1 ⅛ miles, dirt. 3YO. $1,000,000.

This is a fun one – and I do think there’s a ‘more than likely winner’ in this race – 3 Saudi Crown looks much the best after a near-win in the slop in the Jim Dandy at Saratoga. He almost nosed out champ Forte, and if that had happened, I’m not sure the ML would be 7/2. If you think he’s your winner, then by all means bet him, or even single him in that P5 sequence – I wouldn’t blame you. After all, class gon’ class.

Where might an off-the-board type longshot come from? How about 7 West Coast Cowboy? Steps into graded company last out over wet go in the G3 West Va Derby, and finishes a worthy second; all three of his best lifetime runs have been over the slop. I think he’s more than worth a look at 12/1, and perhaps offers serious exacta value with Saudi Crown. I think a 3-7 exacta will easily pay between 20 or 25/1, and could help your bankroll in a serious way.

Top selections: 3, 7, 11, 2

If you’ve made it to this point in the article – thank you! And if you want to support our work, please consider grabbing a sheet at www.goldbookbets.com.

Thanks, and good luck today! -Louie

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