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HomeHorse RacingLouie’s Look Ahead: Whitney Day at the Spa (August 5)

Louie’s Look Ahead: Whitney Day at the Spa (August 5)

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A fun Saturday for us to bet on at Saratoga- three consecutive Grade 1s and a bunch of betting options on that menu.  Let’s get into it!


We’re playing the Grand Slam Bet again – we have to have at least one horse land in a WPS spot in the first three legs, then have the winner in leg 4.  Let’s go!


Race 8 G1 The Test.  7F, dirt.  3YOF.  $500k.  Pick 5, Grand Slam


What a great field we have here – and boy do we talk up those fillies on The Horse Racing Happy Hour Podcast a doozy in this one.


KY Oaks and Acorn winner 1 Pretty Mischievous is here, and ready to attack a shorter course.  I think she’ll be the overwhelming favorite in the 10 furlong Alabama later in the summer – but she only has to go seven furlongs here.  This may be one where she gets beat, and then turns the tables in the Alabama.  Exclude at your own risk.


The filly she beat by a head is in here, and at a price – 6 Dorth Vader is 6/1 and can upset the apple cart here with a solid finish.  I think there’s going to be a speed duel up front, and Dorth Vader is a balanced runner who can pick off the front-runners.  I have her on top.


Impossible to overlook 8 Maple Leaf Mel and 7 Munnys Gold – both are more than capable of winning here, as well.  We’re spreading a touch as part of our Grand Slam bet.


Top Selections: 6, 1, 8, 7


Race 9 G1 Saratoga Derby Invite.  1 3/16 M, turf.  3YO.  $600k.


This is a fun one, and it’s my personal opinion this is the best 3YO group we have – the longer turf runners.  Very good group.


Some great horses in here, and because we’re playing the Grand Slam, we’ll try to hit the board as much as possible.


5 Far Bridge won the Belmont Derby last month; he’s never been worse than second, so we’ll include him here.


6 Webslinger has hit the board in 5 of 6 races this year; he recently won back-to-back turf races at Churchill.  Include.


1 Mondego is an improving type who has 2 wins and has hit the board 4 of 5 races this year.  Finished only a length behind Far Bridge at Belmont, and could absolutely win with the right trip here.  Include.


2 Program Trading is a Prat/ Brown combo.  I’d pretend there’s more analysis here, but there isn’t.  Include.


I also think we should include the 12 Truly Quality, a recent maiden-breaker at Belmont.  He ran 10 furlongs in a scorching 1:59 and change.  If he did this on the dirt in the KY Derby, we’d talk about him forever.  That speed can win here, and a 12/1 price with Irad is too tantalizing to pass.  Include.


Top Selections: 5, 6, 1, 2, 12


Race 10 G1 The Whitney.  1 ⅛ M, dirt.  4+up.  $1M.


Ah, the gold medal race for older dirt horses mid-summer.  And we’ve got a top horse in this one.  Remember, because of how we’re playing the ticket, we need horses that are going to hit the board. 


6 Cody’s Wish is very, very likely to hit the board.  Ha.  Include.


I don’t think he has much of a chance to win, but 1 Zandon is a talented horse that loves to run second and third.  He’s hit the board 10 of 11 lifetime runs, so we’ll include him here.


2 Charge It looked great against less in the Suburban last out, and should be near the front of the pack at the finish line.  Worthy of an include.  5 White Abarrio and 4 Last Samurai could also hit the board.  


Top Selections: 6, 1, 2, 5


Race 11 Allowance for non-2 lifers.  7 F, dirt.  3+up.  $149,500 purse. 


Interesting last leg of this one; fun field, but our job is simple: pick the winner.


Let’s use two horses – 7 Everso Mischievous, coming out of a tough break trip at Ellis, and should get some help from Tyler in the irons.


And 5 Frat Pack is coming out of a maiden win, by more than 5 lengths.  All the numbers point to a Chad Brown win here.


Top Selections: 7, 5.


Here’s our Grand Slam bet: 1,6,8 / 1,5,6 / 1,2,6 / 5,7 $1 base is $54.


Good luck today!

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