- Advertisement -
HomeHorse RacingFair GroundsLouie's Lookahead - Lecomte Day 2024

Louie’s Lookahead – Lecomte Day 2024

- Advertisement -

Louie’s Look Ahead: Lecomte Day 2024 at FGNOLA

Late All Stakes Pick 5 at Fair Grounds – $250,000 guaranteed

Alright folks – here we go! The 20 point races are upon us on the road to Derby 150. We start in New Orleans with the G3 Lecomte on the Derby side, and the Silverbulletday on the Oaks side. Both are 20 pointers for whoever wins them. Let’s dive into this sequence – all five races are route races, unusual for a pick 5.

The bets with the most player-friendly takeouts at Fair Grounds, FWIW: WPS, DD, EX, Pick 5, Pick 6. My pick 5 is at the bottom of this article if you’d like to skip the prose.

Race 9 The Marie G. Krantz Memorial. 1 1/16M, turf. F&M 4+up. $100k.

Plenty of ways to go in the opening leg of this pick 5; I’ll use a few to try and start us with a bang.

6 Fancy Martini has been running in – and winning – high level allowance races. Last two out, she has won at 9 and 8 furlongs, both on the turf course at Churchill. Both of those rides were under James Graham – who keeps the mount here. Trainer Robertino Diodoro hits at 23% with horses first off the claim; that 6/1 price is extra juicy. Include.

9 Tufani is an obvious contender here, a winner of two straight under jockey Ben Curtis. A quick (by modern standards) three week turn around for this one, but I think she’ll be ready. Include.

1 Lovely Princess and 5 Creative Cairo were noses apart on the line last time out; I’ll include Lovely Princess, as she has 4 wins the last two years; include Creative Cairo in your tickets if you’re hoping for a larger payout – but she has one win the last two calendar years. Pass.

Top Selections: 6, 9, 1.

Race 10 The Silverbulletday. 1M70yds, dirt. 3YOF. $150k.

With Alpine Princess out of this field, it opens up much more for the second level of runners on the Louisiana trail to the Oaks – and that’s exactly what we have here.

6 West Omaha is the class of this group, having run second last out going two turns for the first time. I think she’s far and away the class here; I’ll single in this leg.

Others to look at for a price: how good is 3 Miss Code West? This Oklahoma-bred won the Trapeze in the mud last out at Remington against open company. Can she run it back? I think you’ll get every bit of 9/2 on Saturday.

1 Perfect Shot is 4/1 on the line, and a daughter of Gun Runner. Took her three tries to break her maiden; her winning run came over two turns at the highest maiden level at Churchill. She could well win this one.

Top Selections: 6*, 3, 1.

Race 11 The Colonel E.R. Bradley. 1 1/16M, turf. 4+up. $100k.

Another turf router, and another fun field. I think this ends up being a two horse race, and it’ll be the leader or the stalker who wins.

2 Strong Quality will inherit the lead, and I think jockey Florent Geroux is as good as anyone at being on the lead in route races and keeping appropriate pace. Include.

9 Beatbox is a horse that loves to stalk, but unfortunately one that is also OK with finishing second. Could jockey Joel Rosario get him over the top? I think so. Include.

I think 8 Rising Empire is a possibility here; he’s one you can include if your bankroll allows.

Top Selections: 2, 9, 8.

Race 12 The G3 Louisiana. 1 1/16M, dirt. 4+up. $175k.

“Give me two turn dirt races for older males, or give me death!” I think that was Horse Racing Twitter, but hey, we have a good one here.

If you want to play a class pick 5 – you’ll play 3 Saudi Crown, and 2 Smile Happy. Smile Happy had one of the very best speed figures of 2023; Saudi Crown came on late in the year as a 3YO. Saudi Crown is going to inherit the lead, as he is the fastest horse in this one; Smile Happy is a little more difficult to handicap, as he is coming off a 6+ month layoff. This is easily Kenny McPeek’s weakest angle on the sheet: his horses are 1-for-21 off this type of layoff recently. Not good.

1 Red Route One is an interesting entry – he’s 0-for-6 at the distance, and after speaking with trainer Steve Asmussen at the Preakness – I don’t think 8 ½ furlongs is long enough for this son of Gun Runner. If he’s like his dad, he’ll pick off a few races as a 4YO this coming year, and add to what could be a fun older dirt male category. But I don’t think this one is long enough for him.

An off-the-board option here is 5 Five Star General. He’s coming off a 2023 where he ran 7 times, won three, and hit the board in all but one. He will try to get the lead, but might not be as fast as Saudi Crown; if he can get it, he may simply be the best on Saturday.

Top Selections: 3, 5, 1.

Race 13 The G3 Lecomte. 1 1/16M, dirt. 3YO. $200k.

Welcome to this year’s Brad Cox Invite! Three of the eight entrants in this one are from his barn: 2 Nash, 5 Ethan Energy, and 8 Awesome Road. Let’s dive into their prospects, first.

I’m tossing Awesome Road, only because his last two efforts are below-par for this field. I think this is a last-ditch effort to appease ownership and find out if he can compete at this level this early in his career; my sense is, no, he cannot.

2 Nash became a big-time buzz horse after a romp of a maiden win at Churchill in November. He followed it up with a disappointing second to 7 Track Phantom, who we’ll discuss soon. Can he bounce back and win here? Of course. So, he’s on our include list.

My top play in this one is 5 Ethan Energy, coming out of a maiden win at Fair Grounds over this course. Jockey Luis Saez has the best numbers with Cox, and I think he’ll do a fine job on Saturday aboard him. Include.

7 Track Phantom dominated this group last out; we’ll assume he’s capable again, and include.

One for the gamblers in the group: 4 Can Group is coming out of a superb run in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Turf, where he finished 4th; trainer Mark Casse does a good job switching surfaces – this might be too much of an ask.

Top Selections: 5, 7, 2.

So let’s construct a Pick 5 ticket:

1,6,9 / 6 / 2,9 / 3, 5 / 2,5,7 $.50 ticket is $18.

Consider this an “A Ticket,” meaning the most likely to win, and not a gambling ticket.

Good luck!

- Advertisement -
- Advertisment -

Most Popular