Louie’s Look Ahead – A Dandy Grand Slam

Louie’s Look Ahead – It’s a Dandy Vandy kinda day you

Alright, kids, gather ‘round – it’s time to get Dandy at Saratoga.

Ah, yes, a tradition unlike any other – the ol’ Travers warm up in July, under scorching conditions. Summer, my friends, is on its last legs.

But Louie, it’s gonna rain! Fear not, faithful reader. We’ll have fast condition and wet condition plays for all four races we’re looking at.

We’re going to play one of my favorite bets in horse racing – the Grand Slam at NYRA. Your job in the Grand Slam bet is to have any horse that finishes WPS in the first three legs (today, races 8-9-10), and then the winner in the last leg (today, race 11). Let’s do it.

Race 8 G1 Alfred Vanderbilt. 6F, dirt. 3+up. $350k. Leg 1 of Grand Slam, Late P5

FAST TRACK
I think this race finishes 4-5-6. I think 5 Gunite gets the lead, and he gets run down by 4 Elite Power. Wash, rinse, repeat. I do think, however, that 6 Dean Delivers is your most likely third place finisher. Like other multi-race wagers, the less bet tickets pay the most, so including a horse like Dean Delivers helps to bolster your payout; if you just want to cash tickets, include the 4 and 5 and move on.

WET TRACK
I love Gunite if it rains. I think he will get out front and stay out front if that happens. Dean Delivers moves up a spot and becomes a must-include if it rains.

Top Selections: Fast: 4, 5, 6 Wet: 5, 6, 4



Race 9 Allowance. 1M, turf. F&M 3+up. $149,500.

ON THE TURF
5 Expand the Map has hit the board 3 out of 4 runs this year. Again, we’re just trying to hit a WPS type bet here, so 5 is a must include on the turf.

Let’s include 9 New Ginya on the ticket, too, as this horse won an allowance in April at 8 ½ furlongs at Aqueduct in April, won last out, and hit the board the other run in her last three. Good value at 8/1.

4 No Show Jimmy has Manny Franco in the irons, and Manny is 53-2-14-7 at Saratoga this year, meaning he’s finishing in the money at 43%. I’ll take those odds on a horse coming off a maiden win.

OFF THE TURF
15 She Caught My Eye is a “Main Track Only” entry – MTO – meaning this horse will only run if the race is off the turf. This one’s trained by Linda Rice, who is 37% winners at Saratoga right now, on top of 71% hitting the board. Obvious include.

14 Absinthe is coming off a maiden win at Ellis as part of the Churchill meet there. Comfortable win against the top maiden company in that meet, should be a factor if we move to dirt.

Top selections: ON TURF: 5, 9, 4 OFF: 15, 14


Race 10 Grade 2 Jim Dandy. 1 ⅛ M, dirt. 3YO. $500k. Leg 3 GS, Start Late P3

Three KY Derby alums, the scratched Derby favorite, and a new shooter – that makes this race fine… and Dandy. I’ll see myself out.

Short field, so not hard to hit the board. I think we try to avoid the short prices, and pick a couple that can hit the board. Heck, I wouldn’t be stunned by any of these horses winning this race.

For value, let’s lean on 3 Hit Show, one of the Brad Cox triumvirate, and the longest odds in that group. I love the move from Manny Franco to Luis Saez, who I think will give this horse a much better chance to get a good check.

1 Disarm has hit the board in every lifetime race except the KY Derby. So, literally, as long as there are less than 18 horses in a race, he gets you paid. He’s also won in the slop, so we can trust him no matter the conditions.

Top selections for Grand Slam: 3, 1


Race 11 Allowance. F&M 3+up. 5 ½ furlongs, turf.

Alright, time to pick an outright winner. Tough state-bred race to close.

ON THE TURF:
With the scratch of 9 Act of Congress, I think we lost an obvious single; let’s lean on the 8 Busy Morning off the layoff and 7 Kerry, who is dropping out of stakes company and trying to pick one off at this level.

Top Selections: ON TURF: 8, 7; OFF TURF: 12, 1

Grand Slam ticket: ON TURF: 5,6 / 4,5,10 / 1,3 / 7,8 $1 base is $24
Grand Slam ticket: OFF TURF: 5,6 / 14,15 / 1,3 / 1,12 $1 base is $16.

Good luck today!