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HomeHorse RacingLouie's Look Ahead 10/21/23 - Keeneland

Louie’s Look Ahead 10/21/23 – Keeneland

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Louie’s Look-Ahead: Raven Run Day at Keeneland

We’re in that sleepy part of the horse racing calendar, a mere two weeks ahead of the Breeder’s Cup and in a part of said calendar where the graded stakes in North America are few and far between.

We have one at Keeneland today – the Grade 2 Raven Run – a seven furlong dirt sprint for three year-old fillies. The male counterpart – the Perryville – is listed, but sports a graded stakes level quality field. Both races, on paper, point to the races being fun ones.

.The card is back-loaded, as many are; because of this, the early part of the card is rife with opportunities at big pays. My suggestion – if you’re on the type of limited bankroll that I am – play three horses you like in those races in a boxed exacta. On Thursday, we did exactly that, and ended up with a 127/1 exacta pay in race 5. We’ll take one of those every day, thankyouverymuch.

I like the middle part of the card, with a smaller pick 3 ending in the aforementioned Perryville. Let’s see if we can’t press it for a few bucks and get a reasonable return.

Race 4 Allowance 1 mile, turf $140,000 F&M 3+up

This feels like a listed stakes more than an allowance, and we’re spoiled in Kentucky with these types of fields because of the purse structures. I think the top two in this race are especially interesting, with a horse stretching out that I think could be a problem, as well.

I think race 4 is going to be a fun one between my top picks: 4 Adaay in Asia and 8 Viareggio. Adday in Asia won numerous handicaps and group races in Europe, looked great at Aqueduct last out, and seemed to really enjoy the mile distance; Viareggio won first time stateside – you guessed it – at Keeneland. Gets lasix back, she should be right there.

The wildcard here to me is 2 Oeuvre (that’s French for artwork for you philistines). She hasn’t tried the distance in quite a while, and has been racing at a high level in turf sprints. She was a turf sprint star at Fair Grounds, but the breeding does suggest she’s capable of making it around two turns with no issue. I’m interested to watch her try something she hasn’t tried in a while – but will be leaving her off the ticket because of it.

Top Selections: 4, 8.

Race 5 Maiden Special Weight $100,000 6 ½ Furlongs 2YOF

The 2 year-old cavalcade continues, as it always does at Keeneland this time of year. I think there are three fillies worth including in this one, with my longshot of the day landing in this one.

3 Irina’s Charm took a while to figure out what she was doing, but accomplished a lot in her first run ever at Churchill last out. Phil D’Amato hits at 19% with second-time starters, so that 10/1 number is mighty attractive. Finishing fourth by 2 lengths first out is plenty good to me, especially in the highest level of 2YO company at Churchill. Include.

Coming out of the same MSW is the 9 Sweet Gal of Mine. Trainer Mike McCarthy should have her ready for this one, and we pick up Flavien Prat for the mount. Seems too easy, and it’ll only be near 4/1 because of the size of the field, if we’re that lucky.

Trainer Brad Cox has a first-timer, and Florent Geroux is aboard. It is what it is. Include the 8 Denim and Pearls.

Top Selections: 2, 9, 8.

Race 6 The Perryville 7 furlongs, dirt $250,000 3YO

My upset of the day pick is in the next – race 6, the Perryville. 1 Verifying is in here, in what turned out to be a terrific field. I think he’s totally capable of winning here, but that 5 Dr Venkman is in better, improving form at the moment. I’ll give him a serious shot here, and I will include both in my tickets.

I’ll feel pretty stupid if 4 Raise Cain wins here – a son of Violence turning back in distance. Again, we’re asking a horse to do something he hasn’t done in a while… if you’re so inclined, I think he’s worthy of an include; I’ll be leaving him off and letting him beat me if he’s ready.

Top selections: 5,1.

Our Play:
Pick 3, Races 4-5-6: 4, 8 / 3,8,9 / 1, 5 $2 Pick 3 is $24. Good luck!

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